Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign

doi:10.1007/s00190-024-01824-7

	Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign
	Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna 1; Kur, Tomasz 2; Winska, Malgorzata 3; Dobslaw, Henryk 4; Nastula, Jolanta 1; Partyka, Aleksander 1; Belda, Santiago 5; Bizouard, Christian 6; Boggs, Dale 7; Bruni, Sara 8; Chen, Lue 9; Chin, Mike 7; Dhar, Sujata 4; Dill, Robert 4; Ferrandiz, Jose Manuel 5; Gou, Junyang 10; Gross, Richard 7; Guessoum, Sonia 5; Han, Songtao 9; Heinkelmann, Robert 4; Irrgang, Christopher 4; Kiani Shahvandi, Mostafa 10; Li, Jia 11; Ligas, Marcin 12; Liu, Lintao 13; Lu, Weitao 9; Mayer, Volker 14; Michalczak, Maciej 12; Modiri, Sadegh 15; Otten, Michiel 8; Ratcliff, Todd 7; Raut, Shrishail 4,16; Saynisch-Wagner, Jan 4; Schartner, Matthias 10; Schoenemann, Erik 17; Schuh, Harald 4,16; Soja, Benedikt 10; Su, Xiaoqing 18; Thaller, Daniela 15; Thomas, Maik 4; Wang, Guocheng 13; Wu, Yuanwei 19; Xu, Xueqing 20; Yang, Xinyu 19; Zhao, Xin 19; Zhou, Zhijin 9
	2024-03-01
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF GEODESY
ISSN	0949-7714
卷号	98 期号:3 页码:34
摘要	Predicting Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) is crucial for precise positioning and navigation both on the Earth's surface and in space. In recent years, many approaches have been developed to forecast EOP, incorporating observed EOP as well as information on the effective angular momentum (EAM) derived from numerical models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land-surface dynamics. The Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC) aimed to comprehensively evaluate EOP forecasts from many international participants and identify the most promising prediction methodologies. This paper presents the validation results of predictions for universal time and length-of-day variations submitted during the 2nd EOP PCC, providing an assessment of their accuracy and reliability. We conduct a detailed evaluation of all valid forecasts using the IERS 14 C04 solution provided by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) as a reference and mean absolute error as the quality measure. Our analysis demonstrates that approaches based on machine learning or the combination of least squares and autoregression, with the use of EAM information as an additional input, provide the highest prediction accuracy for both investigated parameters. Utilizing precise EAM data and forecasts emerges as a pivotal factor in enhancing forecasting accuracy. Although several methods show some potential to outperform the IERS forecasts, the current standard predictions disseminated by IERS are highly reliable and can be fully recommended for operational purposes.
关键词	Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) Length-of-day (LOD) UT1-UTC Prediction
资助者	Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki
DOI	10.1007/s00190-024-01824-7
关键词[WOS]	SHORT-TERM PREDICTION ; LEAST-SQUARES ; COMBINATION ; FILTER ; GPS ; SLR
语种	英语
资助项目	Narodowe Centrum Nauki
资助者	Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki ; Narodowe Centrum Nauki
WOS研究方向	Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Remote Sensing
WOS类目	Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Remote Sensing
WOS记录号	WOS:001190564900001
出版者	SPRINGER
引用统计	被引频次：10[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://210.72.145.45/handle/361003/14741
专题	高精度时间传递与精密测定轨研究室
通讯作者	Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna
作者单位	1.Polskiej Akad Nauk, Ctr Badan Kosmicznych, Bartycka 18A, PL-00716 Warsaw, Poland 2.Wroclaw Univ Environm & Life Sci, Inst Geodesy & Geoinformat, Norwida 25, PL-50375 Wroclaw, Poland 3.Warsaw Univ Technol, Fac Civil Engn, Armii Ludowej 16, PL-00637 Warsaw, Poland 4.Deutsch GeoForschungsZentrum GFZ, Dept Geodesy 1, Potsdam, Germany 5.Univ Alicante, UAVAC, Alicante, Spain 6.Observ Paris, SYRTE, Paris, France 7.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA 8.ESA, ESOC, PosiTim UG, D-64293 Darmstadt, Germany 9.Beijing Aerosp Control Ctr, Natl Key Lab Sci & Technol Aerosp Flight Dynam, Beijing, Peoples R China 10.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Geodesy & Photogrammetry, Zurich, Switzerland 11.Xian Surveying & Mapping Ctr, Xian, Peoples R China 12.AGH Univ Krakow, Adama Mickiewicza 30, PL-30059 Krakow, Poland 13.Chinese Acad Sci, Innovat Acad Precis Measurement Sci & Technol, Beijing, Peoples R China 14.LSE Space GmbH ESA, ESOC, Robert-Bosch-Str 5, Darmstadt, Germany 15.Fed Agcy Cartog & Geodesy BKG, Frankfurt, Germany 16.Tech Univ Berlin, Inst Geodesy & Geoinformat Sci, Berlin, Germany 17.ESA, ESOC, Robert-Bosch-Str 5, Darmstadt, Germany 18.Shandong Univ Technol, Zibo, Peoples R China 19.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Time Serv Ctr, Xian, Peoples R China 20.Chinese Acad Sci, Shanghai Astron Observ, CAS Key Lab Planetary Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna,Kur, Tomasz,Winska, Malgorzata,et al. Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign[J]. JOURNAL OF GEODESY,2024,98(3):34.
APA	Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna.,Kur, Tomasz.,Winska, Malgorzata.,Dobslaw, Henryk.,Nastula, Jolanta.,...&Zhou, Zhijin.(2024).Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign.JOURNAL OF GEODESY,98(3),34.
MLA	Sliwinska-Bronowicz, Justyna,et al."Assessment of length-of-day and universal time predictions based on the results of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign".JOURNAL OF GEODESY 98.3(2024):34.