High-precision polar motion prediction using EOP_20_C04 and EAM based on CSLS plus AR and CSLS plus LSTM methods

doi:10.1093/gji/ggad317

	High-precision polar motion prediction using EOP_20_C04 and EAM based on CSLS plus AR and CSLS plus LSTM methods
	Kong, Qiaoli 1,2,3; Han, Jingwei 1; Wu, Yuanwei 4; Wang, Tianfa 1; Chen, Yanfei 1
	2023-07-27
发表期刊	GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL
ISSN	0956-540X
卷号	235 期号:2 页码:1658-1670
摘要	High-precision prediction of polar motion (PM) plays an important role in fields such as astronomy, geodesy, navigation and aerospace. Incorporating information on the effective angular momentum (EAM) of the geophysical fluid is an effective way to improve the precision of PM prediction. Based on the EOP_20_C04 data set and the EAM function, this study applies complex segmented least-squares (CSLS) + the long short term memory (LSTM) neural network and CSLS + autoregression (AR) models to predict PM. For the 6-d PM prediction, the mean absolute errors (MAEs) achieved by CSLS+AR are 1.03 and 0.8 mas in the X- and Y-directions, respectively, corresponding to reductions of 45.80 and 31.97 per cent when compared to predictions reported routinely in Bulletin A of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS). For the 365-d PM prediction, the MAEs gained by CSLS+LSTM model are 14.58 and 10.59 mas in the X- and Y-directions, respectively, corresponding to reductions of 28.17 and 51.09 per cent compared to predictions of the Bulletin A, and the prediction accuracy attained by CSLS+LSTM is higher than other prediction schemes. The experimental results show that, when considering EAM information, the CSLS+AR model can achieve better prediction accuracy for short-term PM prediction, however, the CSLS+LSTM model is more effective for medium- and long-term PM prediction owning to the excellent nonlinear fitting capability of the LSTM deep learning algorithm.
关键词	Earth rotation variations Space geodetic surveys Non-linear differential equations Time-series analysis
资助者	This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project
DOI	10.1093/gji/ggad317
关键词[WOS]	EARTH ROTATION PARAMETERS ; EXCITATION
语种	英语
资助项目	This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio[42374038] ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio[42271436] ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio[ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[J17KA077] ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China[XAB2018YDYL01] ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; [12073034]
资助者	This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos 12073034, 42374038 and 42271436), the Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos ZR2023MD072 andZR2021MD030), a Project of Shandong Province Higher Educatio ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Shandong Natural Science Foundation of China ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Project of Shandong Province Higher Education Science and Technology Pro-gram ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Talent introduction plan for Youth Innovation Team in universities of Shandong Province ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Belt and Road Team Project
WOS研究方向	Geochemistry & Geophysics
WOS类目	Geochemistry & Geophysics
WOS记录号	WOS:001058115600002
出版者	OXFORD UNIV PRESS
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://210.72.145.45/handle/361003/14223
专题	高精度时间传递与精密测定轨研究室
通讯作者	Kong, Qiaoli
作者单位	1.Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Coll Geodesy & Geomat, Qingdao 266590, Peoples R China 2.Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Dept Land Surveying & Geoinformat, Hong Kong 100872, Peoples R China 3.Shandong Univ Sci & Technol, Key Lab Geomat & Digital Technol Shandong Prov, Qingdao 266590, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Time Serv Ctr, Xian 710600, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kong, Qiaoli,Han, Jingwei,Wu, Yuanwei,et al. High-precision polar motion prediction using EOP_20_C04 and EAM based on CSLS plus AR and CSLS plus LSTM methods[J]. GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL,2023,235(2):1658-1670.
APA	Kong, Qiaoli,Han, Jingwei,Wu, Yuanwei,Wang, Tianfa,&Chen, Yanfei.(2023).High-precision polar motion prediction using EOP_20_C04 and EAM based on CSLS plus AR and CSLS plus LSTM methods.GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL,235(2),1658-1670.
MLA	Kong, Qiaoli,et al."High-precision polar motion prediction using EOP_20_C04 and EAM based on CSLS plus AR and CSLS plus LSTM methods".GEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL 235.2(2023):1658-1670.